Food Inflation Apocalypse

The Mogambo Guru uses an email being sent out by the National Inflation Association to imagine a zombie apocalypse, but you don’t need zombies to envision TEOTWAWKI in the Western world with food inflation numbers like this. In March food prices rose by 2.4% which is the largest increase in 26 years. This was also the sixth consecutive month of inflation.

From the always amusing Guru writing at The Daily Reckoning:

A 2.4% monthly leap! That’s a 28% annualized increase in the price of food! In One Freaking Year (OFY)! Yikes!

By this time, alarms are going off in my head, and, like the terrific husband and father that I am, I shout protectively to the family, “This is it! The inflationary collapse that comes from the Federal Reserve creating too much money and the idiotic Congress deficit spending too much money has started, just like I said! To the bunkers, morons! Hup! Hup! Let’s go!” expecting, you know, that they would immediately jump up, their eyes shining with pride as they obediently follow me into the Mogambo Bunker Of Paranoid Seclusion (MBOPS) where they could make themselves useful by, perhaps, zapping up some microwave pizza, or at least just shut up and stand attentively by to help with reloading something, just in case.

Alas, it was not to be, and among the hooting and jeering from my family, my wife even insulted me by asking, “Will you be back in time for dinner?” like this economic calamity is just a stroll down to the beach and back!

So I say to her, as I am sweeping by her on my way to the MBOPS and trying to keep a tone of incredulousness out of my voice, “Do you realize that the National Inflation Association says that fresh and dry vegetables are up 56.1% in price in the last year? How about that fresh fruits and melons are up 28.8% in price in that selfsame last year? How about eggs ‘for fresh use’ being up 33.6%, or beef and veal up 10.7%, or dairy products being up 9.7%? Does any of this inflationary horror mean anything to you?”

It doesn’t seem to mean much to his wife, but to us it means that at this rate the average family will be priced out of most foods within a few years. Imagine for a second a family that pulls in $60,000 with two kids living in a world where a loaf of bread costs a little over $4. In a little less than three years that will be the price you’ll be paying for a loaf you now pay $1.99 for if these numbers continue but don’t increase.

Do you think the government policies are going to keep inflation steady?

What will life be like if vegetable prices keep going up by 56.1% every year? Won’t that increase translate into other foods since vegetables like corn go into so much of our food stuffs? And now our cars?

And food inflation is only one part of the story. The Wall Street Journal’s article The High Cost of Raw Materials points out that the current rising costs of raw materials cannot be absorbed by the moribund economies of the welfare state West (including America) and benefit emerging markets like China at the expense of American companies and consumers. The same family above will be walking to the grocery to buy their $4 a loaf bread because they won’t be able to afford a car:

An unrelenting rise in the cost of raw materials—largely driven by mounting demand from Asia—is cutting corporate profits, hitting stocks and, in some cases, pushing up consumer prices.

One glaring example is the sky-rocketing cost of rubber, a major tire component, which has climbed nearly 74% this year after rising 92% in 2009. Industry analysts and some tire makers, including Goodyear Tire and Rubber Co., in Akron, Ohio, and Bridgestone Corp., in Tokyo, have warned investors about a potential hit to profits.

A similar concern faces firms that buy other rapidly rising raw materials. Palladium, which goes into car exhaust systems, is up nearly 39% this year, potentially boosting costs for U.S. car makers as they seek to emerge from their slump.

As the Democrats make more stringent regulations for exhaust systems the price of making cars will only increase, pricing the middle class out of all but the most unsafe vehicles. Forget about the cost of tires if rubber keeps going up. Tires average over a hundred bucks each now, what happens to the family above when they need a new tire and they average $300-400 a piece? Companies will be faced with taking huge financial hits and hoping they can outlast the problem or passing off the cost onto consumers which can’t work when we have 10% unemployment.

What’s all this mean for us? It means it’s time to stock up. When your local market has a sale on canned goods, go all in and pick up 20. Start storing long lasting canned foods that are high in nutritional value. Learn how to grow and preserve at least some of your own food, even if you have to have an “apartment garden” in your living room. Learn how to forage for wild foods in towns and cities. Take up fishing or hunting. But get ready to live in a world where food is not as plentiful as it is today, and costs much more to purchase.