Hardly news to anyone with a functioning brain but news organizations are finally starting to report what many of us have been dreading. We don’t have enough food, and people will only put up with hunger for so long:
LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) – Rising grain prices from Russia’s drought and fires will pressure populations already hit by the financial crisis and could stoke unrest — particularly in the Middle East, North Africa and parts of Europe.
Wheat prices have risen by nearly 70 percent since June after Russia suffered its worst drought in 130 years and are at their highest since 2008, when the last major food price rally sparked protests and riots in a string of emerging nations.
Analysts warn that if prices stay high then the threat of street violence will increase — at least up to a point.
“We could see some street riots but I wouldn’t expect any governments to fall,” said Jonathan Wood, global issues analyst for consultancy Control Risks.
“On one level, we have much less of a problem than in 2008 because we have better food stocks. On the other hand, because of the financial crisis many countries are not in such a good position financially to deal with it.”
Particularly in emerging markets where food makes up a higher proportion of household purchases, the price rise could filter through in inflation, rate hikes and wider deficits.
The Middle East and North Africa, particularly Egypt, are regarded as particularly vulnerable, as are emerging and southern European countries where discontent has already been fuelled by harsh cuts in public spending, benefits and pay .
“Grain imports are particularly sensitive in the Middle East and North Africa — bread is such a crucial staple of the diet,” said Metsa Rahimi, analyst at security consultant Janusian. “Eastern Europe is also an obvious area of risk.”
Europe has seen less social unrest than many expected from the financial crisis — although riots in Greece in May unsettled global markets — but risks are expected to rise in the autumn as unions call strikes and spending cuts bite.
The article goes on to pick out Egypt as particularly vulnerable and reports there’s already been food related unrest there. But my money is on Europe, especially Western Europe, for real rioting. The people there are unused to being hungry and have been told for generations they “have a right” to food that the government will magically provide.
But America will be no picnic as the boomers and each subsequent generation has developed outrageous senses of entitlement. What will happen here when bread is $5 and shelves are empty?
That’s why I have food stored up, including those nifty emergency food buckets in case I have to pick up and leave. Do you?