KGS Nightwatch: Obama, UN and Media Shilling for Syrian “Resistance”

But the fact is the Syrian regime is not engaged in a civil war in Homs. From KGS’ Nightwatch:

Over the weekend, news video footage from Homs, the so-called center of the opposition uprising, raised questions about the actual effectiveness of the opposition. The videos showed Syrian police, firefighters and militia using fire hoses to disperse a major opposition rally in Homs. So who controls Homs? Apparently the government does, with the exception of a few photogenic neighborhoods.   A European news outlet published a city map that shows the neighborhoods of Homs based on sectarian residence patterns. The map shows that most of the videos of violent confrontations have been taken in two or three mostly Sunni neighborhoods in the south of the city.   Homs is a large city and most of it appears to experience little to no violence, based on the video footage and the map of neighborhoods. The vast majority of Sunni neighborhoods and the Christian and Alawite neighborhoods report no violence. Life goes on in most of Homs.   If the Homs firefighters and police retain the capability to use fire hoses against demonstrators, then the government remains in control in that city. That is a basic precept of internal instability analysis. Homs still has a functioning government that responds to orders from Damascus.   The point of this comment is that most US news reporting on the struggle in Syria appears aimed at grabbing headlines rather than at providing a balanced view of both sides of the struggle.  Non-US news sources present a different view of the unrest. For example, it is difficult to maintain that the opposition dominates Homs, when the fire brigade is secure enough to turn hoses on an opposition rally there.  US news analysts completely missed the significance of the fire brigade operations shown in their own videos..   The bottom line is that the opposition holds no ground that it does not physically occupy and then only when government forces are not present or chasing it. Homs does not appear to be under siege or under opposition control, based on German news reporting.  Some neighborhoods are and that is worth further research. It also helps explain why the al Asad government exhibits no signs of panic or severe stress commensurate with the urgent statements by the UN, Arab League and US officials.

In other words the American Left, in concert with Jihadists in the UN and Arab league, is attempting to find military support for another Muslim Brotherhood/Al-Qaeda led take over of a country that already threatens Israel. The Baathists at least didn’t want a full scale war with Israel – the Brotherhood demands it.

World War III Watch: Russia and US on Collision Course Over Syria

The U.S has announced plans for a Kosovo style intervention in Syria and like the Kosovo mission the U.S. will be siding with radical Islamists who are intent on genocide. Though Syria is a Baathist (National Socialist) run dictatorship it is also a haven for Alawite Muslims who are widely regarded as heretics by most other Muslims. Alawites maintain decent if not cordial relations with Christians, Zoroastrians, Druze and Ismailis. They are however allied with “twelver” Shia Muslims which explains in religious terms their good relationship with the Iranian Theocracy.

Wahhabists in particular are known to consider Alawites worse than Jews and Christians. It should be noted our operations will be in conjunction with the now Wahhabi influenced Turkey:

The Pentagon is readying for the possibility of intervention in Syria, aiming to halt Syrian President Bashsar Assad’s violent crackdown on protesters, the newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported Saturday, citing a US military offical.

According to the official, the intervention scenario calls for the establishment of a buffer zone on the Turkish border, in order to receive Syrian refugees. The Red Cross would then provide the civilians humanitarian aid, before NATO crews would arrive from Turkey and join the efforts.

The measure would pave the way for the US to declare an aerial blockade on Syria.

The intercession is to be modeled after NATO’s efforts in Kosovo, which brought an end to the Serbian control of the region. NATO’s plan of action included prolonged aerial shelling.

The US’ diplomatic efforts have yet to yield an effective international resolution that would stop the bloodshed. More than 100 protesters have died over the weekend alone, human rights activists said.

According to Asharq Al-Awsat, the Pentagon does not anticipate a change of heart on the part of China or Russia, who have opposed foreign intervention or sanctions against Syria. But the US expects the two nations to join the humanitarian aid efforts, support a ceasefire between the Syrian regime and rebels and send special UN envoys to investigate the developments in the country.

The next step in the reported US Department of Defense plan would be to appoint a team of UN observers to monitor the humanitarian aid, and enter Syria. They would need aerial protection, which would eventually lead to an aerial blockade.

Which is of course pure madness. China and Russia along with Iran and reportedly some Latin American communist states are already in Syria helping the regime. Russia has military advisers on the ground according to GlobalSecurity.org:

18:48 08/02/2012 MOSCOW, February 8 (RIA Novosti, Alexey Eremenko) – Russia used its satellites to help the Syrian government fight growing insurgency in the country, pan-Arab daily Asharq Al-Awsat reported.

Russian officials provided the regime of President Bashar al-Assad with satellite photos showing the location of the bases and main forces of the Free Syrian Army, the most prominent militant rebel group, the London-based newspaper said on Wednesday.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to Damascus for talks with al-Assad on Tuesday. He was accompanied by Mikhail Fradkov, head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, who allegedly handed over the maps to Syrian government, the report said.

Asharq Al-Awsat cited unidentified sources in al-Assad’s government, but also said the information “was not fully confirmed.” Neither Foreign Ministry in Moscow nor Fradkov’s agency commented on the story as of Wednesday afternoon.

Free Syrian Army emerged as the main organized force combating al-Assad’s government in the bloody uprising in Syria that claimed at least 5,000 lives since March 2011. The group is allegedly comprised primarily of army defectors and reported its ranks to be 20,000.

Russia is the main international backer of al-Assad’s regime, having blocked two resolutions targeting it in the UN Security Council and supplied it with arms. Russian warships also called at the Syrian port of Tartus in January.

Al-Assad’s forces have stepped up their assault on insurgents in recent weeks, using artillery to bombard the city of Homs, a hotbed of protests, media reported, citing Syrian opposition activists who said several hundreds were killed in the attack. The pro-government Syrian news agency SANA blamed the clashes on attacks by unspecified terrorist groups.

Al-Assad is following a classic anti-insurgency tactic, trying to rout rebels from cities into the countryside, where a full-scale assault can be launched using heavy weaponry, said Yevgeny Satanovsky, head of the Middle East Institute think-tank.

This tactic already worked for the Algerian government, which defeated its own insurgency during the civil war in 1991-2002, Satanovsky said by telephone.

I doubt Russian ministers showed up without “bodyguards” and other “personnel” to help Assad put down this insurrection. China is known to be supportive of Assad but so far have not stepped in to support the regime but they don’t need to. Russia is doing fine directing traffic, suing their propaganda arm Russia Today to overestimate the number of Iranian special forces active in Syria in a obvious attempt to dissuade U.S. action and filing a report that claims the U.K. is working on the ground with Islamist run Qatar to arm and assist rebel forces. This second story is designed to show NATO is a running destabilizing and illegal operations on a country so has no legitimacy  a peacekeeping force.

All this is happening as Russia announced acts of aggression by NATO that threatens the Russian Federation will be met with a nuclear response. With high level Russian diplomats in Syria it’s easy t see how our intervention in Syria could spiral quickly out of control.

Get ready for things to explode.

KGS Nightwatch Report on Growing Iranian Military Provocations

This note comes from KGS in a recent edition of their excellent Nightwatch report:

Iran-Egypt-US: A US Defense Department spokesman said the US has no indications that the Iranian naval ships which transited the Suez Canal with Egyptian permission ever reached a Syrian port this past weekend. Two Iranian frigates with a support ship supposedly transited the Suez Canal en route the Syrian port of Tartus, to join Russian ships there. Iranian media bragged about the out of area deployment.   Comment: The Iranian media claim the ships reached the Syrian port of Tartus, but the US says they did not. Neither side apparently is willing to divulge to open source news services the present location of the ships.   The US spokesman said there was nothing particularly noteworthy about the latest deployment of the warships. That statement is not accurate because the Iranians showed they are prepared to use military power, such as it is, in support of their allies. That is not a trivial demonstration of intent.   The navy’s execution seems to have fallen short, but the leadership’s intention is clear, which is backed up by the decision to cut crude exports to France and the UK. Iranian threats look serious, never mind that they also are potentially suicidal.   Iran is struggling to protect its interests simultaneously on two fronts – in Syria and against the international community. Iran seems comfortable confronting the international community, but is struggling to support effectively its proxy in Damascus.   The attempted deployment of naval ships to Syria measures the importance Iran attaches to the survival of the al Asad government. Cutting oil to the UK and France, by comparison, appears to have been a much less burdensome executive decision. Syria represents Iran’s greatest strategic vulnerability. The banking sanctions on dollar-delimited transactions are a close second and the oil export embargo is a distant third.   Iran-Europe: Iranian National Oil Company head Ahmad Qalehbani said on 20 February that Iran could cut crude exports to other European Union nations, in addition to France and the United Kingdom, if the member states continue to take hostile action against Iran.      Comment: Iran is playing hard ball. A cut in Iranian oil exports to Greece, for example, would undermine the austerity measures enacted by the Greek government as a condition for the European bailout. Greece could become insolvent even with the European bailout.

The report goes on to highlight China’s tepid support of sanctions. China and Russia can both be counted on, in my humble opinion, to side with the Iranian allied communist and Islamist countries if a larger war breaks out. These allies include Syria, Venezuela, Bolivia, Zimabawe, North Korea and other states which are Chinese and Russian clients. Many African communist countries were the beneficiaries of Chines and Cuban “advisers” in the 70s so I expect Chavez is willing to do take up that cause. Reports of Venezuelan allied FARC fighters aiding the regime in Libya bolster that opinion.

A war in Iran, which is inevitable, could drag the entire world into a world war.

Iranian Navy Ships Pass Through Suez Canal in Clear Military Provocation!

The ships are believed to be headed to Syria to aid in the Baathist crackdown. I guess that Arab spring which overturned the Egyptian government isn’t heralding in peace and stability after all since Egypt allowed the passage:

ISMAILIA – Two Iranian naval ships have sailed through Egypt’s Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, in a move likely to be keenly watched by Israel.

“Two Iranian ships crossed through the Suez Canal (on Thursday) following permission from the Egyptian armed forces,” a source in the canal authority said on Friday.

The destroyer and a supply ship could be on their way to the Syrian coast, the source added. Iran and Syria agreed to cooperate on naval training a year ago, and Tehran has no naval agreement with any other country in the region.

Two Iranian warships sailed along the strategic waterway on February 17 last year, in a move that Israel called a “provocation”.

Egypt’s military, which has a close defense ties with the United States, has been governing the country since the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak a year ago.

Iran joins Venezuela in supplying Syria making Western actions against that country seem like a world war by proxy. Hopefully things don’t heat up too much there.

h/t Astute Bloggers

How Close is the Coming Iranian War?

Very close. I just got finished reading the excellent KGS Nightwatch newsletter and it seems that not only is Iran already striking Israeli targets in the Middle East but are striking targets in Asia as well. The sharp turn into Islamism in Turkey is also building more tensions as Israel finds a new ally in Cyprus, who have been increasingly targeted by Turkish aggression. This is the build up to armed conflict which will no doubt draw in more countries:

The Iranians who were arrested after mistakenly setting off explosives in Bangkok on Tuesday planned to attack Israeli diplomats, Thai police chief Prewpan Dhamapong said on 16 February. Dhamapong said that Thai authorities know for sure that Israeli diplomats were targets and that the targets were specific.Meanwhile, Malaysian authorities have arrested an Iranian man also suspected of being involved in the Bangkok bombings. Royal Malaysian Police Inspector General Tan Sri Ismail Omar said the suspect was detained late on 15 February at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. Malaysia is prepared to extradite the suspect to Thailand, after completing interrogation and receiving the expected Thai request

[…]

Cypriot President Demetris Christofias and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed an agreement on 16 February for emergency use of Cypriot airspace by Israeli aircraft. News services reported the agreement would allow the Israeli air force and navy to use airspace and waters around Cyprus to protect energy resources and to establish an Israeli base on Cyprus. Netanyahu and Christofias both denied these reports and insisted the agreement is only for peaceful purposes.Comment: This is the first visit to Cyprus by an Israeli prime minister. Multiple news commentaries noted that Cyprus traditionally has been cool to Israel because of Israel’s past close military and political relations with Turkey. Thus, the down turn in Turkish ties over the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip, among other issues, has rebounded into a new relationship with Cyprus.The Israelis and Cypriots have a legitimate need to be able to protect offshore oil and gas exploration. During Netanyahu’s visit, Turkey threatened to bar Cyprus from exploring in waters that Turkey also claims.A potential advantage for Israel is that the new arrangement could afford Israeli pilots opportunities for more long distance flight training, which would be needed to prepare for an attack against Iran. The press coverage of the new agreement suggests observers should expect to see Israeli combat aircraft at Cypriot airfields and training in Cypriot airspace.On arrival in Nicosia, Netanyahu made a point of mentioning Iran’s nuclear threat, as he put it, accusing Iran of being the most dangerous country on earth. Taken together, the circumstances, statements and fact of a military agreement leave no doubt that this initiative is part of the Israeli strategy for dealing with Iran.

Iranian Quds forces are active in Syria propping up the Baathist regime and Iranian ally Venezuela is supplying Syria with fuel. Communists and Islamists are coming together while the West breaks apart from within. This third regional war could well kick off another world war.