I told you so. The coming commercial real estate implosion is going to be a disaster of biblical proportions for the markets and eventually for America. Imagine a world where some of the biggest office buildings in your cities sit vacant, draining money from the banks that hold them and can’t rent them out. The taxes your city expects receive disappear, the banks can’t afford to pay the utilities for empty properties and the lights go out. What will your downtown look like when there’s nothing commercial there, just empty decaying relics of a prosperous past?
It’s already starting to happen in Phoenix, and it’ll be coming to your town sooner rather than later:
Mesa Financial Plaza, the 17-story office tower that lights up the night sky with a neon-blue silhouette, has been noticed for trustee sale.
The 309,000-square-foot midrise at the southeast corner of Southern Avenue and Alma School Road was built in 1986 by Valley developer Conley Wolfswinkel. It now is owned by BPG Properties Ltd. of Yardley, Pa.
The $40.6 million default is just one of many that are starting to drop in the Valley. The number of defaults for loans of more than $20 million is increasing rapidly for all product types, including office, industrial, retail and large apartment complexes.
Chris Toci, executive director of the capital markets group at Cushman & Wakefield of Arizona Inc., said Phoenix is at the front end of a major crash.
“I have always felt that when the commercial levee breaks, there will be a cascade of properties that drive prices to levels that we have not seen in a very long time, if ever,†Toci said.
Got that? The article goes on to quote plenty of people who have their heads in the sand (“We expect a recovery in 18-24 months!”) but the fact is that for every building that defaults and is sold eventually, there will be ten large properties that no one wants.
A second property collapse is coming, be ready.